On Risk-Based Expression of Hydrographic Uncertainty
|Title||On Risk-Based Expression of Hydrographic Uncertainty|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Authors||Calder, Brian R.|
|Publisher||Taylor & Francis|
|Keywords||Bathymetric Modeling, hydrography, Own-ship Risk, Real-time Underkeel Clearance, Risk Models|
Current methods for representing uncertainty in hydrographic products typically describe the type or completeness of data that was collected, but not the risk of transit or certainty about the data presented. This paper proposes a model for risk based on the background information, own-ship information, and how much is unknown about the area. Based on a model of underkeel clearance, dangers to navigation and other factors, the method predicts a scalar risk for an area, projected track or total voyage. The paper describes the risk assessment methodology, and illustrates it in track planning, area-based risk assessment and real-time decision support. These use cases highlight the benefits and flexibility of the model, and the concomitant requirement for clibration of input data.